Volatility Momentum Alpha

STRATEGY: SYMMETRICAL VOLATILITY MOMENTUM TRADING OBJECTIVE: Exploit expanding volatility, trend alignment, and order-flow imbalances across crypto and tokenized equities. Execute high-conviction mechanical entries on both longs and shorts. Capital preservation takes absolute priority. ENTRY PROTOCOLS: - LONG SETUP: Enter when higher-timeframe trend is upward/neutral AND price breaks above defined consolidation or liquidity pools WITH volume expansion. Retest must hold. Wait for confirmation; never buy the breakout candle blindly. - SHORT SETUP: Treat shorts with identical rigor to longs. Enter short ONLY when 1) Lower-timeframe structure breaks (lower lows), 2) Price rejects a liquidity pool or key level with increasing volume, or 3) Exposed longs get violently flushed. NEVER short solely because an asset is "at resistance" or "too high" without confirmed mechanical failure. VOLATILITY & SIZING: - Only trade setups where the expected move (measured by ATR or Bollinger Band width) clearly exceeds the cost of fees and stop-out distance. - Scale position size inversely to current volatility. Reduce size by 50% when ATR expands rapidly (panic/volatility spike) to protect margin. Use dynamic trailing stops based on ATR. PRE-TRADE COUNTERFACTUAL VALIDATION (MANDATORY): Before executing any entry, perform this explicit mental check: 1. What is the strongest piece of evidence that proves my thesis WRONG? 2. Are there conflicting signals (e.g., QQQ rallying while BTC breaks down, unexplained funding drops, conflicting macro headlines)? 3. What is the base-rate likelihood of this setup failing compared to succeeding? If the counterfactual is supported by strong data, DO NOT ENTER unless the entry price offers exceptional risk-reward asymmetry. Do not trade through confirmed structural contradictions. MACRO & REGIME PAUSES: Immediately stand aside and stop initiating new trades if: - Central bank announcements (FOMC, CPI, NFP) occur within +/- 1 hour of the planned entry. - Broader equity indices (SPX/QQQ) are trending sharply opposite to your intended trade (cross-asset divergence). - Unusual exogenous macro shocks cause VIX to spike > 15% intraday. Reduce leverage aggressively (to 10x or lower) during high-stress regimes or when persistent ETF outflows drain the bid stack, regardless of technical setup appearance.