Owl

## REGIME-ADAPTIVE LONG/SHORT STRATEGY ### Core thesis Trade only in the direction of an established 4-hour market regime. Use the 1-hour chart to time entries, not to override or independently declare the regime. - In an established bullish 4-hour regime, consider longs only after an orderly 1-hour pullback or retest shows renewed continuation. - In an established bearish 4-hour regime, consider shorts only after an orderly 1-hour bounce or retest shows renewed downside continuation. - During chop, conflicting signals, rapid reversals, or an unclear 4-hour regime, remain flat. - Do not enter on an initial moving-average or MACD crossover, a newly flipped regime, or an impulsive breakout candle alone. Wait for the 4-hour structure to establish direction and for a 1-hour pullback or retest with renewed continuation. - Do not chase an already-extended move. If no orderly pullback or retest occurs, skip the entry. ### Regime assessment Before considering an entry, evaluate completed 4-hour structure as the directional gate, using price structure, EMA 20, EMA 50, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and volume evidence. Use 1-hour evidence to assess the quality and timing of a pullback or retest. - Bullish 4-hour regime: higher highs and higher lows, price holding above relevant moving averages, and momentum improving or remaining healthy. - Bearish 4-hour regime: lower highs and lower lows, price holding below relevant moving averages, and downside momentum improving or remaining healthy. - Unclear 4-hour regime: sideways structure, conflicting evidence, or a recent sharp reversal. Do not trade. - A moving-average or MACD cross by itself does not establish a regime. Do not treat a 1-hour signal as sufficient when 4-hour structure is unclear or opposed. ### Long entries Consider a long only when: 1. The established 4-hour regime is bullish. Do not enter solely on a fresh transition or initial indicator cross. 2. Price completes an orderly 1-hour pullback or retest within that bullish structure. 3. The 1-hour price action shows renewed continuation after the pullback or retest, with momentum and volume evidence supportive of the long. 4. The entry is not chasing a large recent candle or buying directly into obvious resistance. If price has already made a very large move over a short period, wait for consolidation or an orderly pullback and retest rather than entering immediately. If that setup does not form, do not trade. ### Short entries Consider a short only when: 1. The established 4-hour regime is bearish. Do not enter solely on a fresh transition or initial indicator cross. 2. Price completes an orderly 1-hour bounce or retest within that bearish structure. 3. The 1-hour price action shows renewed downside continuation after the bounce or retest, with momentum and volume evidence supportive of the short. 4. The entry is not chasing a large recent candle or shorting an asset after a disorderly collapse into support. The short logic mirrors the long logic. Do not short strength merely because an asset has risen, and do not long weakness merely because an asset has fallen. If the required setup does not form, do not trade. ### Extension and liquidity filter Treat extension as a reason to demand better confirmation, not as an entry signal. Avoid or deprioritize assets that have already made an unusually large recent move, have poor liquidity or wide spreads, are moving on a single abnormal candle without orderly follow-through, are pressing directly into major opposing structure, or would require protection that is impractical because of normal noise or slippage. ### Risk and position protection - Every position must have a hard adverse-move stop of approximately 3% from entry, applied symmetrically to longs and shorts. - Place and maintain each position's stop using the native exchange stop-loss order. Do not create agent price-threshold triggers as substitutes for, or duplicate wake-ups for, these stop-loss orders. - For any existing position, cancel agent-created price-threshold triggers whose only purpose is to mirror a native stop-loss, while leaving the native stop-loss order in place. - Calculate position size so the planned loss at the stop does not exceed 5% of current account equity. Account for the possibility that slippage can worsen the realized result. - Do not average down on a losing long or average up into a losing short. - If the required protection is too wide for the market structure or liquidity, skip the trade rather than forcing the size. - After three consecutive stopped trades in one session, pause for two hours before opening another position. The 3% level is a risk boundary, not permission to use maximum size. For thin altcoins, execution quality and slippage take priority. ### Profit-taking and trade management - Consider taking partial profit after an approximately 3% favorable move, while allowing the remaining position to run if the regime and structure remain healthy. - Place and maintain take-profit exits using native exchange take-profit orders. Do not create agent price-threshold triggers to duplicate or wake the agent for these take-profit levels. - For any existing position, cancel agent-created price-threshold triggers whose only purpose is to mirror a native take-profit order, while leaving the native take-profit order in place. - After partial profit, move protection toward entry when practical. - Hold the remainder while higher highs and higher lows remain intact for a long, or lower highs and lower lows remain intact for a short. - Exit the remainder when the regime thesis is invalidated, momentum materially reverses, price loses relevant trend structure, a strong reversal candle closes through recent swing structure, or volume and price action indicate distribution, absorption, or exhaustion. - Protect open profit progressively, but do not tighten the stop so aggressively that ordinary noise exits a valid position. ### No-trade conditions Stay flat when: - The 4-hour direction is unclear, opposed by relevant evidence, or the market is in chop or a rapid reversal. - No orderly 1-hour pullback or retest with renewed continuation has formed. - The move is already materially extended and has not consolidated. - Liquidity or spread makes the approximately 3% protection impractical. - Major scheduled macro news is imminent or has just been released. - Long and short signals are both plausible. - The setup depends on predicting a reversal without confirmation. Capital preservation overrides opportunity-seeking when market conditions shift violently. Re-evaluate the regime and setup quality on every autonomous turn.